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Russia 2018: 10,000 Simulations Produce Likely World Cup Winner

2 Min Read
2018 World Cup Promo Photo

UBS, a Swiss multinational investment bank offering financial services, has predicted the possible outcomes of the upcoming World Cup games.

According to their predictions, Germany’s national team might likely win the World Cup games again as they did back in 2014.

The bank said the outcome was based on predictions obtained from 10,000 simulations.

The investment bank, which has been operating for the past 156 years, sees a higher percentage probability that Germany will win the World Cup holding in Russia, with Brazil and Spain coming in 2nd and 3rd places respectively.

Take a look at this info-graphics below:

UBS World Cup Prediction
UBS World Cup Prediction

As seen in the data above, there is 24% probability that Germany would win the World Cup, with Brazil and Spain the next most likely teams to succeed, with 19.8% and 16.1% percent chances respectively.

The head of emerging market asset allocation of the bank in a report said: “Germany and Brazil are set for an easy start, while Spain will have to hit the ground running if they are to beat Portugal, the current European champions, in their opening game.

“From there, the going will get tougher for Spain and Brazil, who will possibly face Argentina and England, respectively, in the quarter-finals.

“Argentina’s fate will strongly depend on the form of their star players in our view, which is an element of uncertainty and hard to capture with our quantitative model.

“France should be able to advance to the semi-final but could face Brazil, another top team, after the possible elimination of Portugal. England, just like Belgium, has a balanced team but would have to get past Brazil to reach the semi-final.”

The report also states that the World Cup host country, Russia, might make it to the round of 16 before losing to either Spain or Portugal.

Nothing was said about the Nigerian team.

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