How to rig an election by Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klass is a psephology that was published in 2018 that has turned out to be one of the most controversial and eye opening books of the 2000s, so far. The political analysis in this ground breaking book sheds light on some of the practices of despotic regimes and how to counter them peacefully.
Description
An engrossing analysis of the pseudo-democratic methods employed by despots around the world to retain control
Contrary to what is commonly believed, authoritarian leaders who agree to hold elections are generally able to remain in power longer than autocrats who refuse to allow the populace to vote. In this engaging and provocative book, Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas expose the limitations of national elections as a means of promoting democratization, and reveal the six essential strategies that dictators use to undermine the electoral process in order to guarantee victory for themselves. Based on their firsthand experiences as election watchers and their hundreds of interviews with presidents, prime ministers, diplomats, election officials, and conspirators, Cheeseman and Klaas document instances of election rigging from Argentina to Zimbabwe, including notable examples from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Russia, and the United States—touching on the 2016 election. This eye-opening study offers a sobering overview of corrupted professional politics, while providing fertile intellectual ground for the development of new solutions for protecting democracy from authoritarian subversion.
The focus of the book is self explanatory and the credentials of the authors are unquestionable given their experience. As a book lover and a lover of democracy, the title and synopsis immediately caught my eye and I immediately added it to my ‘to read’ list.
Below, we take a look at one of the best reviews on the book that caught my attention, from a reader on GoodReads simply called Sipho.
“This book illustrates how elections enable authoritarian leaders to keep power. It is a truism that while the number of elections conducted over the world is increasing, the world (as a whole) is by all measures becoming less democratic.
This paradox is explained by the authors in 8 chapters that develop the idea of the ‘dictator’s toolbox’ – the 6 methods commonly used to rig elections. The book then concludes with recommendations on how to make electoral mischief harder.
Key Takeaways
1. Invisible Rigging
This happens before votes have even been cast. They are used to make the playing field ‘un level.’
The most common forms of invisible rigging are:
(i) Gerrymandering – this is basically fixing voting districts
(ii) Fixing the electorate – creating barriers to registering/voting (eg US voter identification laws)
(iii) Political exclusion – making it difficult for opposition politicians to participate.
2. Buying Votes
This is using the network of patronage to advance political ends. There is, however, a risk associated with this; if you don’t deliver on promises, people will just take the money and vote with their conscience.
Because political systems are often unresponsive to the needs of people, voters see the time before elections as an opportunity to at least get something.
This, in part, explains why elections cost so much in some parts of the world.
Opposition parties tend to be more successful when they have access to resources (eg. credit from banks). This explains why autocrats tend to keep tight controls/regulations on financial services.
Common ways to execute vote buying:
(i) Convince people that their vote is not secret
(ii) Monitor voting at community level
(iii) Get more people to sign up for assisted voting.
The problem with methods of reducing vote buying is that they may reduce voter turnout. In this regard, its probably better to encourage people to take the gifts and vote with their conscience.
Other solutions: (i) Voter education – this is a limited solution
(ii) Economic development – this is also limited because the middle class often finance the vote buying and may themselves be susceptible to bribes.
3. Divide And Rule
Use of political violence is more likely when:
(i) Incumbents operate in weak political systems and
(ii) they have support from a powerful/rich country.
4. Hacking The Election
Fake news helps autocrats to rubbish narratives that are against the state position as lies. It also reduces voter confidence in institutions and facts.
Digital tools are also often used by counterfeit democrats to ensure that people censor themselves.
Personal data has been used to sway voters eg. Cambridge Analytica scandal.
Other forms of hacking include hacking voting machines or e-votes, the voters roll and the final tabulation.
Solutions to the hacking problem may be for opposition parties to independently tabulate results as they come in, as happened in Ghana. Fake news may be countered by setting up sites for fact checking – but these are less likely to gain traffic.
5. Ballot box stuffing
This is the most risky form of rigging and is often used as a last resort or in combination with the other methods. This method also doesn’t guarantee victory – as was the case in Kenya in 2007.
The 4 main strategies:
(i) Multiple voting
(ii) Getting underage or unregistered voters to vote
(iii) Stuffing boxes with additional ballots
(iv) Tampering with the counting process.
Inherent with ballot box stuffing is the temptation to over-rig. The sweet spot for victory margin is 5-15%. Too small a margin attracts investigations because the race is so tight, while too big a margin is not believable.
Possible solutions to this problem:
(i) Local observers and civil society can have their own independent parallel vote count
(ii) Biometric technology
(iii) Send observers to remote areas
6. Potemkin Elections
These are elections specifically for show – they present a facade of being free and fair.
Autocrats hold elections because it increases the chances of regime survival.
Western nations often knowingly endorse sham elections:
(i) to maintain good relations and pursue their geopolitical agendas
(ii) because some countries are in strategic positions eg allies in the “War on Terror”
(iii) because calling out electoral fraud could trigger violence and instability in that country
(iv) because calling out fraud may reverse diplomatic gains eg leading to future observer missions being refused entry
(v) because they deliberately lower the standard of an acceptable election, depending on the country. A Gabon is treated differently to a Germany
(vi)flawed elections may be an improvement on past ones and the foundation for better elections in the future.
However, it can very well be argued that lowering the standard, discourages autocrats from really reforming.
Ways in which Western countries are part of rigging:
(i) turning a blind eye
(ii) endorsing elections, even after observers raise issues
More should be done to strengthen the role of observers. Methods of monitoring have not changed much, while forms of electoral manipulation have gotten more advanced. Observers are often limited in resources and are not allowed to go to more ‘dangerous’ parts, but this is often where manipulation happens. As a result, most will endorse elections as long as there is no overt violence.
Zombie monitors are used by autocrats to endorse rigged elections. These monitors are often supported by authoritarian regimes, but often have independent sounding names.
Independent monitoring groups eg the Carter Centre are the best hope for condemning sham elections in the present climate.
7. Conclusion – How To Make Rigging Harder
Why protect elections? Or rather, why not allow 1 party states eg Rwanda?
– By and large, democracies respect human rights
– Most people would prefer to live in a democratic society, if given the choice
– Repressive regimes are, more often than not, not doing well economically. The successes are more anomalies than the rule
– Most countries already hold elections – it is easier to improve them than to develop new forms of governance
6 benefits of rigged elections to autocrats:
(i) Often the minimum standards to join regional and international organisations like the AU and SADC are elections
(ii) Access to loans and aid
(iii) PR – to show that the leader is liked by the people (pictures of rallies and the actual votes)
(iv) Establish tighter control of the ruling party
(v) Divide opposition parties
(vi) Facilitate elite renewal and keep leadership fresh.
Possible ways to make rigging hard:
– Democratic countries can refuse to financially and politically support governments who abuse human rights
– Western countries must be consistent and deal with issues in their own countries
– Regional bodies must condemn sham elections
– Reforming institutions
– Reforming the election monitoring process to increase the political cost of rigging by, (a) policing deployment of bio-metric information, data storage etc; (b) refusing to monitor elections in countries that have not applied previous recommendations, (c) insist that all observers issue a joint statement – to deal with zombie observers
-Digitizing elections by using biometric registration – this gets rid of ghost voters and ensures people only vote once. When counting, have a digital count at the same time as the manual count. But this is useless if the electoral commission is compromised.
– Give more support to civic society and opposition parties.
Conclusion
This was an excellent read. Late in the year, I will say this was the best I’ve read this year. Provocative and informative as well as very well structured, this is essential reading for those concerned about the eminence of totalitarian governments in the modern world. Truly an invaluable resource in the fight for democracy.”
I have firmly tucked this one into my ‘to read’ list. You may purchase a copy of the book here and have it delivered to your doorstep.
Please feel free to recommend any other good reads in the comment section below.