If you ask most Americans and foreigners which states in the US are the most influential you may hear California or Texas, but probably not Ohio. But not only has Ohio been the poster child for ‘swing states’ (states in the Union whose position for a Presidential nomination isn’t certain), but it has also supplied the country with six Presidents (with the last being Warren G. Harding).
Ohio undoubtedly punches above its weight class, and that’s in large part thanks to its social institutions. This includes its political parties, which closely but do not exactly tow the national party lines.
According to midterm election odds, the Ohio Democratic party has a 90% chance of winning the Senate race. This is incredibly high considering how Ohio was a swing state and all politicians of the same party as the President fare worse in midterms.
So, what makes Ohio Democrats more likely to succeed on the national stage?
History of the Ohio Democratic Party
It’s well known that the Democratic party is the oldest continuously active political party in the country. This is not any different for Ohio, where the Republicans only came to the state during the Antebellum and Civil War Era.
The Republicans held onto Ohio well into the 20th century until the Great Depression forced the realignment spearheaded by Franklin Delano Roosevelt. By the 1950s, Ohio began to be well known for its ability to be a ‘bellwether’ state, to be able to side with the winning Presidential candidate each year.
But this categorization of the bellwether swing state is being questioned by many people, including the London School of Economics, after Ohio voted for Donald Trump by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Not to mention the longer trend of successes for Republicans in the state legislature. Where was the Ohio Democratic party during this?
The Ohio Democrats were mostly subject to the crisis of purposelessness that the rest of the Democratic party was going through under the Trump administration. Ohio Democrats’ most serious hurdles to winning elections were, according to The Columbus Dispatch, the erosion of support from both urban centers and rural counties, plus the relatively low fundraising numbers.
The Geography of Ohio Democrats and Republicans
The state of Ohio is often thought of as being split into five general regions: the Northeast, the Northwest, the Southeast, the Southwest, and the Central. These are important to keep in mind since each region has a unique contribution to the overall political landscape of the state.
The loose urban corridor formed by the triangle of Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati helps make the Northeast, Central, and Southeast regions lean to vote Democratic. The Great Migration and the onset of the Rust Belt made these areas more racially and culturally diverse.
The Northwest and Southwest regions of Ohio, along with much of the Central Region, all look a lot more like the stereotypical Midwest. Republicans hold more sway here and in the rural areas of other counties.
One of the major differences between Ohio and other swing states is how their urban population is not the majority of registered voters. Referring back to the LSE, urban centers “only represent 44% of Ohio’s population as of 2020. By contrast, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh represent 57% of Pennsylvania’s population…, and Chicago represents 69% of Illinois’ population.”
The implication here is that Ohio Democrats have to appeal more to non-urban voters than most other state parties. This make it difficult to balance local campaigning with national messaging.
Since the end of the Obama administration, the mainstream Democrats focused on building a coalition around racial and gender and sexuality minorities, highly educated workers, environmentalists, and anything that wasn’t Donald Trump. This, combined with a lackluster address of labor interests, played a large part in the Democrats’ Ohio losses.
Messaging from Colorado State Democrats
In October 2022, the Washington Post reported on the Democrat candidate for US Senate in Ohio, Tim Ryan, publicly complaining about a lack of support from national Democrats. This complaint was echoed in the same article by David Pepper, a former chairman of the Ohio Democratic party, who worried that “Democrats in Washington [are sending] a signal to Republicans, that if they come in big and attack a Democrat, Democrats walk away.”
This implies that there’s a disconnect between leaders and supporters of Ohio Democrat interests and Democrats at the national level. What is it specifically?
Well, if you look through the messaging information of the thirteen candidates for Ohio Senate the state Democrats promote on their website, you’ll notice the most recurring policy narratives surround:
- Education
- Green Jobs
- Small Business Growth
- Women’s/Reproductive Rights
None of the above conflict with the national Democrats’ platform under Biden, but the delivery of the language and visions do differ. There are fewer Ohio Democrat candidates calling for LGBTQ+ protections, affordable housing, and benefits to urban centers.
Remember that Ohio Democrats are bound by geography and history to try and appeal to a more rural crowd, which then makes them diverge somewhat from the national party. This comes with both drawbacks and benefits. Thinking back to Tim Ryan, while his lack of funding from national donors hurt, his ability to distance himself from Democrat actions in Washington D.C.