The much anticipated 2015 elections are finally upon us. Last Saturday, Nigerians trooped out to the various polling units across the country to elect a new President and federal lawmakers.
There is no doubt that these elections have been the most contentious since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. Not even in 2011 did Nigerians experience an explosive build-up to elections as we have seen in 2015. We have all been witnesses to a run-up characterised by fear mongering, hate campaigns and pre-election violence that have made the run-up one of the most explosive and contentious in Nigeria’s political history.
As Nigerians vote in these elections, one fact that has become evident is that the 2015 elections will alter many things in our country. I do not see how Nigeria can remain the same again after polls are completed in April. Since the build-up to the elections and when polls opened on Saturday, March 28, I have observed the dynamics that have emerged in our political system in the last 16 years. The fallout of the 2015 elections will certainly dominate public discourse in years to come. As I pondered on these dynamics, a few questions came to mind. Has democracy really come to stay in our country? Are Nigerians now more politically aware than they had previously been? Have they come to an understanding of the critical role they can play in deepening the democratic process and are prepared to use their votes?
There is no doubt that the ongoing electoral battle between incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and the opposition challenger, Muhammadu Buhari, has altered the political system. One fallout of the 2015 is how the build-up to the elections has increased the level of political awareness among ordinary Nigerians. Given what we all saw at the rallies and the way Nigerians embraced the elections, it appears they have come to realise that it is only by participating in the electoral process that they can effect a change in the society. I suspect we are going to see a greater level of involvement by Nigerians in future elections. The 2015 elections have indeed changed the perception of Nigerians about politics. On Saturday, ordinary Nigerians arrived very early at polling stations.
There were reports of how voters stayed up late in the night at polling centres to monitor the voting and collation process. The 2015 elections also saw a youth population that has become more politically involved in the democratic process. More than ever before, young people participated in the build-up to the elections by attending rallies and engaging in debates. The major parties also focused on mobilising the youth population for campaign and the voting process. The involvement of young people is not surprising because they constitute about 70 per cent of the population.
The impact of young people in 2015 was mostly felt on social media platforms. As ordinary Nigerians debated in the public space, the battle was also being fought on the social media by supporters of the two dominant parties, the All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party. But what I still find worrisome is that instead of using the social media to engage on issues of national development, the platform was deployed as a tool to hurl personal, ethnic and religious slurs at one another and groups. Ethnic politics, xenophobia and hate mongering dominated the cyberspace. I told a friend recently that if those young people drumming up primordial sentiments on social media are the future leaders we have often talked about, then I am afraid the future is very bleak.
The base level of partisanship exhibited on social media is akin to the campaign of hate we saw at the rallies and campaign circuit. It appeared the young people are fast learning from the elders. Mostly, when you engage a typical Nigerian youth on why he has chosen a particular candidate or political party, you are likely to get a response that portrays tribal or religious sentiment.
However, I met some young people whose worldview transcends our fault lines. That was gladdening and it is in those young people that the future of Nigeria resides. What the 2015 elections have also revealed is that the participation of young people is critical to the deepening of democracy.
What is needed is a system that can harness the potential of young people to participate in healthy debates rather than being hirelings for politicians on social media. Young people must be weaned from imbibing the base sentiments that had blighted past democratic experiences and have continued to make our country a divided one. Another revelation of the 2015 elections is how the build-up seemed to have exposed and widened our fault lines. The campaigns which were dominated by ethnic and religious rhetoric reflected the deep divisions that still exist among Nigerians. It was sad to see how politicians exploited these cleavages to shore up their political chances without minding the danger to our peaceful co-existence as a nation. Politicians also played the religious card to whip up support.
While the line between religion and politics has often been blurred, the 2015 elections deepened the relationship between the two separate entities. For the first time, political positions were determined by religious considerations. In the build-up to the elections, the political parties made so much fuss about how a candidate’s political affiliation could be good or detrimental to Nigeria.
For the first time too, we heard how a Muslim candidate must not be paired with another Muslim. Thus, the terms Muslim-Muslim ticket, Christian-Muslim ticket etc became the criteria for elective positions. At a point during the campaigns, one party was labelled a Muslim party. It will be interesting to see how the religious factor plays out in future elections. Obviously, the elections have changed the dynamics of political domination in Nigeria. For once, the emergence of a strong opposition group rattled the ruling party.
This is something unprecedented in the Fourth Republic. Before the emergence of the opposition APC, the PDP ruled unchallenged. For 16 years, Nigeria was almost becoming a one-party state. Every attempt made at dislodging the ruling party by the then disparate opposition groups had been unsuccessful. But in the 2015 elections, the PDP is now being challenged by a more determined opposition. Certainly, I consider the emergence of a strong opposition platform as one of the changes the 2015 elections have done to the country’s electoral and democratic process.
Let’s hope that the opposition will continue to get stronger. It has also become certain that any party that wins the presidential election will be careful to take Nigerians or the opposition for granted. My expectation is that no matter the outcome of the presidential election, the parties will go on to prepare for future elections. I do not expect that either the APC or the PDP will engage in reckless defection as they have been doing. As Nigerians have demonstrated, they are ready to embrace the two political parties.
The 2015 elections have demonstrated that the two parties have the capacity to form government now and in the future. The 2015 elections will be remembered as one that attracted the attention of the international community more. The concern is heightened by predictions that it could lead to the disintegration of the country. But so far, apart from violence in Rivers State, the exercise has been largely peaceful. Let’s hope the announcement of the results will also end peacefully.