Reports came in that the unemployment level in the country has risen to a record high 42.42%. In this time a staggering figure of 1.52 million Nigerians have been rendered jobless while another 1.58 million joined the labor force in just less than six months. In economics, that is way too high. It represents a recession in the loom. In BUHARIOMICS however, it is seen as a means to an end. It should be clear that the END sought is economic stability and improved standard of living. While the government can be commended, its various policies and its stance against corruption, it is still unclear to the economic world if his ways are just the best for the 2016 NIGERIA. Such measures may have yielded different results. but should it be this time?
Lets take a start from May 29,2015.
The new government came in with a lot of promises to transform the largest economy in Africa into another different level: creating over 2.5 million jobs annually, increasing the country’s GDP, stabilizing the naira in the foreign exchange market and ensure overall economic growth for the next four years. Of course, everybody prays for that but this is almost a year after the promise and what do we have? over 3 million new people searching for jobs.
The Buhari-Osinbajo presidency kicked off “Suggesting quick fixes which will result in tangible,
visible and practical measures so that change would be felt after 30 days, after 100 days, after 6 months of the Administration taking office”. This represented the major item of the President Muhammad transition committee appointed before the official handing – over on May 29,2015. However, times like this require Quick fixes but only in the Buhari concepts of economic development would it be seen that a fix (an overhaul put in his description) can be achieved in a span of three months considering the government came in at a time when there were lots of socio-economic problems on the land, the level of insurgency in the land was alarming, the number of deaths as a result of insurgency was on the high, and the economy like always was in a free for all, the looted funds had left the various sectors hoping for a miracle. Jobs were being lost, breadwinners lost, terrorism was affecting productivity and investments and of course it is clear that investments bring employment opportunities.
Well, would it have been possible? I dont think so considering the fact that The President took his time to make ministerial appointments. Quick measures eh? during that period external and internal factors were affecting the economy, it was hard to determine who was in charge of the Nigerian economy, until November 11, 2015, when a former Commissioner in Ogun State was appointed as the Minister of Finance. This came at a time when there was need for the government to show its policy direction. Better late than never the saying says. The government finally introduced its first fiscal framework (Budget) just some weeks after the ministerial appointments, the budget was the first of its kind in the history of the country, a budget representing a total of over 6 trillion naira, it was termed “Budget of change”, even though there were a lot of discrepancies during the course of the National Assembly performing its statutory responsibilities. On the 6th of May, 2016 President Muhammad Buhari signed the 2016 Appropriation Act into law, the details of that as promised by the President will form a major part of his Address on the 29th of May, 2016 which will be his 365th day as president and Commander – in – Chief of the Armed forces of the federal Republic of Nigeria, a day which should, based on his assertions at the start, be an anniversary of economic take-off to the needed world flight.
The President has ensured to the best of his ability that “corruption be fought to a standstill, the introduction of the Treasury Single Account came at a time when government revenue had to be properly managed. Despite its economic disadvantages, the government was able to gather its finances and save more than 2 trillion naira since coming into office. The war against terror is being won, thanks to our gallant Armed forces and the huge encouragement that has come from the President himself. The continued killing by Fulani “herdsmen which has resulted in over hundreds of death, and also the continued destruction of Oil installation by the new “Niger Delta Avengers is a serious security challenge for this government.
On the 31st of March 2016, the electricity generation capacity of the country fell to an all-time low of Zero Megawatt, for about 2 hours the entire Nation was in a blackout, up till today the government has refused to come out to give a clear explanation of what could have caused such a situation. and thats with the rightful boast of 6 hydroelectric generation facilities. For the past five months, there has been a continued scarcity of fuel around the country, the price of a litre of petrol sold for as high as #300 in some parts of the country, while the Federal government at first announced the removal of Fuel subsidy in December 2015, it eventually came out to announce in March that it was subsidizing a litre of petrol by as high as #9.50, and at such it was forced to announce on the 11th of May 2016 that it was completely removing fuel subsidy and that the price of Petrol is pegged at #145. A lot of Nigerians are still doubting the sincerity of the deregulation drive of this government. Just some days after the announcement, the Vice – president came out to say that the pump price of petrol was increased just to allow independent petroleum marketers source for FOREX. The major issue is the increased availability of petrol, will deregulation solve that?, time will tell. The increase in the price of petrol has considerably affected the cost of transportation and indirectly the prices of goods and services in the country.
Just last week a Pro-government statistical analysis agency (Nigerian Bureau of Statistics) headed by the dynamic Yemi Kale released its first annual quarterly report for the first quarter of 2016. For the first time in 25 years the GDP that measures the worth of economic activities grew at – 0.36%. It was also reported that the major sectors of the economy: Oil, industries, manufacturing and power shrunk to an all-time low, Oil GDP estimated at -1.89% from -8.28% in q4 2015 and-8.15% in q1 2015 and non-oil GDP at -0.18% from 3.14% in q4 2015 & 5.59% in q1 2015 Electricity and gas GDP at -44.4% in q1 2016 from 1.20% and -27.92% in q4 and q1 2015 respectively. Industries GDP at -5.49% in q1 2016 from -3.04% in q4 2015 & -2.53% in q1 2015. Manufacturing GDP at -7.0% in q1 2016 from 0.38% and -0.70% in q4 and q1 2015 respectively. Other (light)manufacturing GDP at -12.22% in q1 2016 from -1.06%and -5.67% in q4 and q1 2015 respectively.
And back to the shocking revelations about the persistent rise in the level of unemployment, it was reported that over 1.5 million jobs was lost in the first quarter of 2016. The economically active population or working age population (persons within ages 15- 64) increased from 105.02 million in Q4 2015 to 106.0 million in Q1 2016. the report adds. In Q1 2016, the labour force population (i.e. those within the working age population willing, able and actively looking for work) increased to 78.4 million from 76.9million in q4 2015, NBS said. This means an additional 1,528,647 economically active persons within 15-64 entered the labour force i.e. we’re able and willing and actively looking for work between January 1 and March 31 2016. Within the same period, the total number in full time employment (did any form of work for at least 40 hours decreased by 528,148 persons or 0.97%. This consists of people who lost their jobs and were either forced or for various reasons chose to move from full-time employment to underemployment. Within the same period, the number of unemployed in the labour force, increased by 1,449,18 persons (increase of 518,000 between Q3 and Q4 2015) between Q4 2015 and Q1 2016. Youth unemployment also rose to 42.24 percent, as 15.2million youths remain unemployed in the economy. Accordingly, out of a total youth labour force of 38.2million (representing 48.7% of total labour force in Nigeria of 78.48mn), a total of 15.2m of them were either unemployed or underemployed in Q1 2016representing a youth unemployment rate of 42.24%. (these figures were sourced from the NBS Q1 report for 2016).
The goal of any government is to try its best to make the citizens at least better off than they were in the previous administration. Thats the foundation of welfare economics. We understand that the government wants to make the country better. That brings the question of AT THE EXPENSE OF Who?, governance is all about sacrifices. You try your best to ensure that the benefits of the gainers outweigh the loss of the losers. Capitalism for all its benefits can only thrive where a government, amidst all its rules, give room for competition to exist. By so doing the invisible hands control the economy. This government for now is yet to layout the direction of its economic policies.
After a year of the Buhari-Osinbajo rule, where is the country being led? . The fathers of economics, defined Economics as the branch of social science that considers the well-being of people, ration their resources to achieve a desired end. Most definitely we are sure that BUHARINOMICS consider the Nigerian people patient enough to endure all the hardships his fight against corruption brings. But in the end, will all this hardship transform into economic prosperity?, time will tell. The President has 36 months to change things around. Alas, the author of the popular book “Bottom Billions”, Paul Collier said in another book titled Wars, Guns, and votes. Democracy in dangerous places” that his friend Ngozi Nkonjo – Iweala once told him that in Nigeria “The last year of a four-year term will be politics”, if she’s right, then the President has just 24 months to show us the greater benefits of “BUHARINOMICS”.