While it is on record that the last administration of former president Goodluck Jonathan made overtures negotiation with Boko Haram but with no success because of its tactlessness and ideology, the process never saw the light of the day as the government embarrassed itself after it earlier announced a ceasefire on October 17, 2014. But rude shock awaited the nation as the radicalised sect unleashed coordinated and devastating attacks.
While Nigerians were excited with the prospect of lasting peace that has evaded the nation since Boko Haram launched military operations in 2009 to create an Islamic state. Thousands have been killed, mostly in the north-east of the country with a famous attack at the United Nations headquarters in Abuja. The abduction of the Chibok girls shocked humanity and the heavens as the group kidnapped over 200 school girls. Till date, no success has been made as regards their whereabouts.
More painful was Nigeria’s military that said it has agreed a ceasefire with Islamist militants Boko Haram – and that the schoolgirls the group has abducted will be released as part of a supposed negotiation agreement. Nigeria’s chief of defence staff, Alex Badeh, announced the truce. A presidential spokesman of the last administration had also said Boko Haram had announced a unilateral ceasefire and the government had responded.
Then Nigerian government spokesman Mike Omeri said Boko Haram would not be given territory under the ceasefire agreement – and that the government would not reveal what concessions it would make.
It was the leader of the group, Abubakar Shekau, who made the world know it was “419” and that the government was duped. It was obvious the government negotiated with an impostor and to think all the machinery of government was deployed in that project yet they couldn’t detect the sham. The Goodluck Jonathan government was left in a pitiable state as Shekau said in a video of October 31, that his group did not deal with any authorities. The Nigeria government was duped roundly and nobody was reprimanded for this careless gaffe.
It is this experience of the last administration that informed my writing of this article after presidential spokesman Femi Adesina disclosed in an interview with BBC Africa on Saturday, that Buhari has declared his readiness to negotiate with the dreaded Boko Haram terrorists.
Barely a 100 days in office, the Buhari government is already contemplating and has opened the door for these terrorists. The arguments against negotiating with terrorists are simple: Government must never give in to violence, and terrorists must never be rewarded for using it. Negotiations with Boko Haram give legitimacy to these terrorists and their method. With the French government already planning to sustain its efforts in the fight against Boko Haram, any open discussions by Buhari with Boko Haram can destabilize the country’s political landscape, undermine international efforts to outlaw terrorism, and set a dangerous precedent.
While it is obvious that the government might not have a sustained intelligence programme to neutralize the sect, the negotiation ideology seems it’s most viable. The key objective for the Buhari administration contemplating negotiations with Boko Haram is not just to put a stop violence but to ensure in a way that lessen the hazard of setting dangerous precedents and destabilizing the country. Before Buhari finally decides to meet Boko, a number of factors must be in place to even have a chance of success.
First is the identity and originality of the negotiators. Like what the Jonathan government experienced where it was fooled for about two weeks of talking with a supposed key man of the group. Buhari and his intelligence personnel must seriously be serious to ascertain whether the Boko Haram terrorists it faces can make good negotiating partners. Before any formal meetings, the government must be sure of the persons they are dealing with to avoid a similar fate like the last administration. More importantly, the media shouldn’t even be involved until they are sure. Having suffered so much in the hands of these terrorists, our security, intelligence agencies and other experts should have known the aims and ideology of Boko Haram that should be the decisive factor in determining whether they might be willing to compromise. With everything, Boko Haram stands for, do they think the group will be willing to come to the table to negotiate?
Before the government considers negotiating with Bo Haram, a deciding factor is to check the level of internal cohesion of the group. We all know there are many sinister groups that have claimed to speak for Boko Haram, but it has turned to be false following their serial attacks and non-committal to negotiations. Buhari must consider not only whether the Boko Haram leadership will accept the terms of a settlement but also whether it can control its rank and file. Over time, we have seen how Shekau has come out to dismiss groups after groups claiming to have represented it.
While there is no perfect time to negotiate with terrorist groups it is also noteworthy that it is too early in the life the present government to consider negotiating with Boko Haram. If they have pushed them off completely and on the verge of total defeat then a negotiation is understandable. But in the present situation, we haven’t been told of a major break in the rank and file of the group. Negotiations are best put on the table when a terrorist group has declared a permanent cessation of violence. Am aware Boko Haram hasn’t called for a ceasefire so why the hurry to request for a negotiation. The government should push for a ceasefire before dangling a negotiation deal. What will be the basis for a negotiation if there is no ceasefire? The government should have exerted all its military might to opt for the negotiating table. Our armed forces and joint forces from Chad, Cameroon and Niger Republic are doing quite remarkably but need intelligence and expertise to quell the excesses of Boko Haram.
To be continued…..
Victor Okoli is the General Secretary, Nigerians in Diaspora-Qatar