It was a fairly unremarkable day in the broad market session today, with oil being the most noteworthy of instruments, recording gains of +2.55% and +1.79% on $WTI and $BRENT respectively.
Some of the key closes for the day include;
$DXY +0.10%
$VIX -1.61%
$SPX +0.07%
$NDAQ +0.20%
$DOW -0.18%
$WTI +2.55%
$BRENT +1.79%
$AAPL (GAP FILL)
$GOOG +1.91%
$NVDA +1.64%
$MSFT -0.64%
$META +0.61%
On Friday, $WTI took the lows April and could not close lower, setting up a potential rally to $77, $79 and $82. This is however dependent on how this week closes but there are already bullish signs emerging on the daily, with today closing above Friday’s high.
Crude rallied Monday on a reduction of Canadian crude output after wildfires in Alberta halted about 145,000 bpd of crude production from several Canadian crude producers.
Signs of stronger Chinese fuel demand are supportive for crude prices after China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported last Thursday that the number of domestic trips made over the five-day Golden Week holidays reached 274 million, up +19% from the pre-pandemic level in 2019 and almost +71% higher than last year.
Other catalysts to watch for oil include;
-Turkish port of Ceyhan
Iraqi oil exports halted since March 25th, 2023
-Indian demand
Processing rose +3.1% y/y to 23 MMT. Also, India’s Mar crude imports rose +7.9% y/y to 20.5 MMT.
-Russian Export Increase in spite of threat to cut supply
Russia’s crude exports jumped above 4 million bpd in the week of April 28.
We will be oil watching inventory reports and the CPI going into Wednesday, to gauge oil demand and how far along the Fed is in it’s fight against inflation.
