Recession can be defined as a period of temporary decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters and this is the situation that is playing out in Nigeria at least according to figures from the first quarter of the year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the first quarter of the year from January 1st to 31st March, Nigeria’s GDP had a negative growth rate of -0.36 percent as compared to a growth rate of 2.11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 which was from October 1st to 31st December 2015. The official figures have not been released yet for the second quarter of the year which is from 1st April to 30th June but analysts are forecasting an even grimmer outlook for the GDP growth rate. On Thursday July 21st 2016, the Minister of Finance Kemi Adeosun appeared in the Nigerian Senate and testified that the country was ‘technically’ in recession. She however attempted to allay public fears by saying “things are tough, but we are not ignorant”. She went on to assure Nigerians that the Nigerian government was on the ‘right path’ and on the ‘right track’. Mrs Adeosun’s assurance came four days after the National Bureau of Statistics said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used in measuring inflation recorded a record high 16.5 percent, the highest in 11 years. It also came after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut Nigeria’s GDP growth forecast in 2016 from 2.3 percent in April to -1.8 percent, the lowest in 29 years. Even if you are not a mathematician, you can tell how bleak Nigeria’s economic future is by the many minuses you see in front of figures. At least in Nursery school, we are taught that 1+1 equals 2 and 1-1 equals 0 and anything that is below 0 on the number line has a minus in front of it like -1 so when you see the IMF forecasting the GDP growth forecast to be -1.8%, you know it is bad. And besides the figures, It is evident that the lives of everyday Nigerians is being adversely affected by this economic downturn. For instance, The prices of goods in the markets have gone up. A 50kg bag of rice that used to cost an average of N9500 now goes for N13000. The pump price of petrol at the filling stations has increased from N87 per litre to N145 per litre due to the removal of subsidy and the deregulation of the downstream sector by the Federal Government. This policy although implemented with good intentions has led to hardship for Nigerians. This increase has led to a corresponding increase in transport costs, both public and private. This has led to increase in commercial bus, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Taxi fares across the country. It has also led to an increase in the cost of transportation of food items like Yam, Beans, Maize, Rice from one part of the country like the North to the Southern part of the country where there are more markets to sell these goods. Nigerians now have to monitor their vehicular movements so instead of being allowed free movement to different parts of the country, Nigerians have now found themselves to be caged prisoners in their own country because the average Nigerian cannot afford these hikes in food and transport.
The Finance minister has assured the public that the Government is doing everything possible to alleviate the situation by ny ensuring fiscal discipline through the cutting down on wastages and leakages in federal spending and the Civil Service in terms of the menace of Ghost workers. She also ensured the quick release of funds for capital projects for the Ministry of Works to prosecute the construction of roads, bridges and other capital expenditure projects. She even went on to say for the first time in Nigeria’s economic history, the capital-recurrent expenditure ratio has been restructured to 30:70 compared to previous administration where recurrent expenditure was 90 percent and capital expenditure was 10 percent.
It is the hope of all Nigerians and indeed Africans to see Nigeria reclaim its rightful place as the true giant of Africa and a source of black pride for all black people on the face of the earth if only the country will brace up and face its challenges rather than blaming other people or ‘the devil’ for its woes.